Statistics released by NISRA show that, for the first time, Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland—the part of the island of Ireland which remains in the United Kingdom. Catholics now make up 45.7 per cent of the population in Northern Ireland, with the number of Protestants at 43.48 per cent. Ten years ago, the figures were 45.1 per cent and 48.4 per cent respectively. 

Strikingly, in terms of national identity, 31.9 per cent of people in Northern Ireland say they now have a British-only identity, with 29.1 per cent having an Irish-only identity, and a further 19.8 per cent a Northern Irish identity (8 per cent say they have both a British and Northern Irish identity). Brexit has recently affected the situation in Northern Ireland, with its implications for the Good Friday Agreement of 1998.

London is apparently looking to fix the Northern Ireland Protocol brought in after the UK left the EU, since special trading arrangements have been needed for Northern Ireland because of its land border with an EU country, the Republic of Ireland. The border is sensitive due to a history of tensions. Instead of checking goods at the Irish border, the protocol agreed checks would be conducted between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. 

Most people in Northern Ireland backed staying in the EU by 55.8 per cent to 44.2 per cent. Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland today, Catholics are generally younger than Protestants, with the Protestant population having declined dramatically – by more than 10 per cent in two decades. Whether the latest figures will create more demand for a united Ireland (a long-standing aim of Irish nationalists on both sides of the border on the island) remains to be seen.

Data released by Britain’s National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) and its British Social Attitudes Survey of 2021 found that support in Northern Ireland for Irish unification increased from 14 per cent in 2015 to 30 per cent last year. In mainland Britain, support for Irish unification fell from 52 per cent in 1998 to 41 per cent in 2021. In 1998, 26 per cent of people in mainland Britain thought that Northern Ireland should be part of the UK; today that figure is 49 per cent.

NatCen also found that while the proportion of nationalist Sinn Féin identifiers who back Northern Ireland being part of the UK fell from 37 per cent in 2010 to 10 per cent in 2021, support among Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) identifiers remained at just under 95 per cent. However, in Scotland the same survey found 52 per cent of people now favour independence, up from 23 per cent in 2012. A referendum on Scottish independence was defeated 55.3 per cent to 44.7 per cent in 2014.

The implication seems to be that many Catholics still back remaining in the UK, and that the link between Catholicism and Irish nationalism is weaker than it once was. The declining role of the Catholic Church on both sides of the Irish border may well have had an impact. Moreover, while the Catholic population is younger than the Protestant one, there is evidence to suggest the decline of the latter is partly due to more Protestants identifying with no religion.

It is hard to say what Joe “I’m Irish” Biden will make of all of this. The US President – who is roughly 5/8 Irish by ethnicity and a Catholic – has been robust in his views on the NI Protocol, an outcome of Britain’s departure from the EU. Special trading arrangements have been needed for NI due to its border with an EU country, the Republic of Ireland.

The border is sensitive due to a history of tensions. Instead of checking goods at the Irish border, the protocol agreed checks would be conducted between NI and mainland Britain, though this has been of great concern to many people who backed Brexit. It should be said that most people in NI backed staying in the EU by just under 56 per cent.

Despite this however, a referendum on Irish unity seems a long way off, even with Sinn Fein’s election victory in May. Again, many Catholics still seem to back remaining in the UK, and that is with Brexit factored in. Meanwhile, the NI Secretary of State – based in London – must order a vote if it “appears likely” a majority of voters want a united Ireland, which is yet to be the case.

As a quirk of the system, the Republic of Ireland must also hold a referendum, something no major political party in the Republic wants right now (even the President of Sinn Fein has said a border poll would not be held for at least five years and most likely by 2030). That has not stopped Sinn Fein from calling for preparations for a referendum after the census data was released.

The data certainly makes for startling reading for a part of the island of Ireland especially designed for a Protestant majority. Still, all may not be as it seems: the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 smoothed out a lot of community tension, while even Brexit was failed to convince even one-third of the population – which must include many Catholics – to back a united Ireland.

Then there are other impediments such as Dublin agreeing to a referendum. As both Ireland and the UK have become more diverse and secular societies – and as the Catholic Church’s influence has decline on both sides of the Irish border – the old Catholic/nationalist vs Protestant/unionist divide itself may be increasingly less relevant for people in NI.

It should be noted that the data used was taken from 2021. The recent death of Queen Elizabeth II appears to have boosted support for the Union in Scotland, but perhaps only temporarily. Meanwhile, a Conservative government in London generally increases support for independence in Scotland and support for Irish unification – today, poll numbers show the main opposition Labour Party polling at around 10 per cent ahead. Things could well change under a Labour government in the future.

While the impact of the UK leaving the EU may have helped boost support for Irish unification and Scottish independence, Brexit is increasingly in the rear-view mirror, meaning its impact on sentiment is likely to diminish with time. Moreover the data suggests that even though there are now more Catholics than Protestants in Northern Ireland, most of them still support the Union, even with Brexit factored in.

The nationalist cause still has a long way to go if it is to gain any serious traction. One final thought: as the influence of the Catholic Church has weakened in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, the connection between the faith, Irish ethnicity and support for unification may be weakening. Ironically, the decline of Catholicism and Catholic identity on the island of Ireland may end up helping to hold the UK together.

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