Though a front-runner to become the next pope, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle could face an uphill struggle, and will need to show he is more than an “Asian Francis” to succeed. In fact, too close an association may be undermining him already. There are three critical factors which could undermine Tagle as papabile: other candidates supplanting him, criticism of his domestic record, and a failure to speak out more openly on China.

For starters, Tagle faces a major challenge from clerics such as Singaporean Cardinal William Goh who possesses many of Tagle’s advantages – being both Anglophone and from Asia, and therefore able to reach a global audience while being more representative of a less European Catholic community – but is perhaps better able to reach across the aisle to conservatives.

By contrast, Tagle is very much seen as representing a progressive wing, having criticised previously “harsh words” against LGBT Catholics. At the recent Lambeth Conference, Tagle said churches must be hospitable to all, because “ethnic and cultural issues ruin the spiritual home”, and “populist” attitudes were threatening the proper meaning of the word “people”. 

Note the similarity with the Pope’s words on his way back from Kazakhstan, where the Pontiff said “migration I think at this time should be taken seriously, because it raises the intellectual and congenial value of the West a little bit.” The Pope asked: “why not make a policy of the West where immigrants are included with the principle that the migrant should be welcomed”. He also spoke of “the danger of populism”, echoing the language of Tagle.

There has also been criticism of Tagle’s domestic record. As reported by Filipino broadsheet, the Manila Standard, while Archbishop of Manila: “Cardinal Tagle allowed the Church to get involved in partisan politics. He was also very critical of then-President Rodrigo Duterte. What Tagle did was in violation of the separation of Church and State mandated in the Constitution.”

According to Louis Biraogo: “Tagle allowed in the homilies paragraphs of partisan politics, political division, hatred, and vindictiveness preached by many cardinals, bishops, priests, and the like. The clerics had the habit of making highly politicized public statements designed to discredit the administration of President Duterte and to urge Catholics to oppose the government.” 

There has also been criticism that Tagle failed to chastise clerics who misbehaved on his watch. But an even bigger issue is the matter of China, as the Pope continues to pursue a deal with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) despite mounting criticism. In seemingly following the Pope’s policy, the Filipino prelate risks being seen as similarly guilty by association.

Even though Tagle was named by Pope Francis as special envoy to a recent Asian Bishops’ Conference, and even though he served as Prefect for the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, and is currently Pro-prefect of the successor organisation – the Dicastery for Evangelization – Tagle has not appeared to speak up openly against the much-criticised deal.

This comes as Tagle’s own country, the Philippines, remains locked in disputes with China. The dicastery which Tagle led from 2019 to 2022 had a certain responsibility for crafting the original deal and for overseeing the wellbeing of Chinese Christians. Although not involved in the contents of the deal itself, Tagle – himself quarter-Chinese – has not been especially vocal about it since despite his position, background and authority.

According to John L. Allen Jr., writing for Angelus: “Technically, the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples ceased to have direct control over ecclesiastical affairs in China in 1946”. That said, “the missionary department nonetheless remains engaged in conversations about the Catholic footprint in the country, and also exercises broad leadership over Church affairs across Asia.”

Allen cited the Congregation erecting a Redemptoris Mater College for Evangelization in Asia in 2018, responsible “for preparing future priests formed by the Neocatechumenal Way for evangelization across the Asian continent.” Writing at the time of Tagle’s promotion, Allen argued, “it’s impossible not to suspect” the prelate would “have an important seat at the table when significant Vatican decisions vis-à-vis Beijing are made.” 

Tagle’s apparent unwillingness to openly criticise the deal comes as the trial of deal critic Cardinal Joseph Zen was due to begin on September 19 (it was however postponed). It also comes as Pope Francis – who made very accommodating comments towards China on his return from Kazakhstan – apparently sought a meeting with CCP leader, Xi Jinping, only to be rebuffed. 

The Pope spoke of “the path of dialogue”, and touching on Zen, the Pope said “he says what he feels, and you can see that there are limitations”. Tagle may be damaging his chances by not speaking up openly against this line of thinking. Indeed, note the contrast with German Cardinal Gerhard Müller, who expressed dismay over the Vatican’s silence and Zen’s “unfair” trial. 

For Tagle, the risk is too close an association with Francis, and being unable to reach across the aisle as well as Goh, who possesses many of the advantages of Tagle. The Filipino may be popular, charismatic and experienced but criticism of his domestic record and his seeming unwillingness to openly challenge the CCP deal could undermine his chances.

While criticism of Tagle’s record in the Philippines is debatable, about something in the past and something about which he can do little now – and frankly, is perhaps of least concern to the College of Cardinals – the ability to reach across the aisle and speak openly on China are areas where the Filipino prelate has the chance to make amends, showing he is more than an “Asian Francis”. Then, Tagle may really have a chance of becoming the next pope.

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