In “Modeling the Future of Religion in America,” the Pew Research Center offers four scenarios for religious affiliation in the US in 2070. According to the first scenario offered by the Center’s researchers, “in 2070, 46% of Americans would identify as Christian, making Christianity a plurality – the most common religious identity – but no longer a majority. In this scenario, the share of ‘nones’ would not climb above 41% by 2070.”

The Center cautioned that its scenarios are “not meant as predictions of what will happen,” but are based on “mathematical projections that combine techniques standardly used in demography with data we have collected in surveys on religion.”