As Saturday’s consistory gets under way, the first time many cardinals will meet may present the opportunity to decide Francis’s successor

On Saturday August 27, cardinals from around the world will gather at the Vatican for a hotly-debated but surprisingly-timed consistory where 20 prelates will join the College of Cardinals, with sixteen under 80 years old and thus qualified to select the next pontiff. Aside from a major legacy-building exercise by Pope Francis (this is the eighth time Francis has named cardinals, with 83 of the 132 cardinal electors now chosen by him) – perhaps ensuring a future head of the Church in his image – this will be the first time many cardinals will have met in person, offering the chance to sound out would-be successors as rumours continue about an imminent papal resignation.

Early next week will also see two days of closed-door meetings of the cardinals to discuss the new Vatican constitution, something which could also be a dry-run for selecting a successor to the Pope. Two leading candidates to succeed the Pope are Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle – dubbed the “Asian Francis” and a continuity candidate but one representing the Church’s changing demographics (the College is already a less European affair) – and Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, a conservative who can reach progressives but would also represent the changing face of European Catholicism (tilting towards the former communist countries of central and eastern Europe), whose selection would likely have a major impact on European politics and culture.

Both men are younger than the current Pope when he was selected at 76 (Tagle is 65 and Erdő 70). Another continuity candidate would be Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (pictured), although the College may be wary of backing an Italian, perhaps thinking he would be less able to reach a global Catholic audience. Just as Tagle has criticised previously “harsh words” against LGBT Catholics, Zuppi has endorsed a “new pastoral attitude” for LGBT Catholics. Zuppi does however appeal to both liberals and conservatives. Tagle and Zuppi may also benefit from the fact another continuity candidate – Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin – could well have undermined his chances of becoming Pope through his close association with the Vatican-China deal, which continues to come under increasing criticism.

Other candidates could include the Dutch conservative, Cardinal Wim Eijk, and compromise candidate, Cardinal Mario Grech from Malta. Also in the running could be liberal Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schönborn (a man who once said same-sex blessings “will not be denied”); another Italian, the conservative Cardinal Angelo Scola (a man who narrowly missed out last time, but who may also be perceived to be unable to reach out to the world), and another conservative with an allegedly tense relationship with Francis, the American Raymond Leo Burke (although the Church has been wary of electing an American Pope given the country’s superpower status). Meanwhile, there is the outside chance of an African pontiff, given that Cardinal Peter Turkson and Cardinal Robert Sarah represent – like Tagle – the changing face of the Church, while also appealing to the conservative wing of the College.

Cardinal Turkson is a staunch conservative who has defended anti-gay legislation, but who has also taken a strong stand on poverty and “idolatry of the market”. Cardinal Sarah is a noted traditionalist with a pre-Vatican II outlook, who has said every nation has a right to distinguish between refugees and economic migrants in comments reported by Polish Catholic magazine, Gość Niedzielny (in contrast to Cardinal Tagle who recently said “We can be so established in our ways and culture that we start behaving like owners of lands, peoples, and ideas.”) However, there is suspicion that some cardinals could not support an African pope. Meanwhile, the recent allegation against Cardinal Ouellet may benefit another conservative candidate around whom allies could rally around.

None of this is idle gossip. Pope Francis has done little to downplay rumours of a departure, recently telling reporters he can no longer travel like he once did, and may have to quit. Pope Francis recently repeated a phrase – “the door is open” – adding that there was nothing wrong with a Pope stepping down. At the start of his papacy, Francis said he would like to see the resignation of popes become normalised, and later said he had a feeling his pontificate would be brief, describing his predecessor’s decision to step down as “courageous”. While speaking with Reuters, the Pope also said he might resign if poor health made it impossible to continue.

The resignation of his predecessor, Benedict XVI, may have paved the way for the Pope to resign, however Francis may wait until Benedict passes away to make the final decision. Meanwhile, it is likely that Francis will wait until the completion of his landmark Synod on Synodality next year. But after 2023 – and assuming the Pontiff’s health does not improve – the chances of a resignation will only increase. Between now and then, the consistory and closed-door meetings will be the main chance for cardinals to sound out a successor, with Erdő, Tagle and Zuppi looking like the front-runners for now.

(Photo: Daniel Ibanez/CNA)

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