On Tuesday, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, the island democracy which China views as a renegade province. Although the US does not officially recognise Taiwan as an independent state, in reality most countries – including the US – view Taiwan as a country in its own right.

For the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), however, the visit was a humiliation. While China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) stopped short of intercepting Pelosi’s plane (which, by the way, appeared to avoid the South China Sea because of fears of a military response), it did stage air and sea manoeuvres in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, with drills and missiles tests.

The PLA is set to hold live-fire drills around Taiwan, beginning Thursday, in what amounts to an aerial and maritime blockade. China’s foreign ministry had already warned the PLA “won’t sit by idly” if Beijing feels its “sovereignty and territorial integrity” is threatened. The PLA Eastern Theatre Command also warned it would “bury incoming enemies”.

What does this have to do with the Pope? Well, perhaps quite a lot. Vatican City State is the only European country to recognise Taiwan as an independent country despite pressure from China. Yet even after the Vatican’s unofficial representative in Hong Kong warned Catholics the freedoms of the past were over, Pope Francis said he hoped the Vatican’s deal with the CCP can be renewed. The deal – struck in 2018 – was already renewed in 2020. 

In the deal, the Vatican and the CCP agreed to cooperate in the selection of bishops of a united Catholic Church in China. Beijing now appoints bishops through the Bishops Conference of Catholic Church in China (BCCCC). The objective is a merger of the Underground Catholic Church into the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association (CPCA). 

Those, like Bishop Augustine Cui Tai, who “conscientiously object” to the CPCA, are permitted to do so, although the Vatican would prefer no objection. The cleric is still in jail although the Vatican has asked for his release. It is now estimated that between 20 and 50 million Chinese Christians have experienced persecution in recent years, while a report by the US Congressional-Executive Commission on China found that Chinese Catholics suffered “increasing persecution” after the deal was signed. 

In China today, religious education remains illegal for under-18s, while churches are monitored with CCTV. According to Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong, arrested by CCP authorities in 2022: “The Vatican may have acted out of good faith, but they have made an unwise decision.” Yet, Pope Francis has defended the deal in terms of statecraft.

The Vatican has never accommodated a regime like the CCP before. Communist regimes in Europe never tried to select bishops, nor attempt the type of surveillance of religious groups which China engages in. Moreover, the Church is subject to nothing like this type of control in other communist countries like Cuba or Vietnam, both with big Catholic populations.

Renewal of the deal without conditions attached will ensure that persecution of Catholics continues. Now, as tensions ramp up over Taiwan, the Pope has a unique opportunity. Not weighed down by economic considerations, the Vatican can take a stand.

It should also be said that Christianity has a rich history in Taiwan. The Church now has an estimated 300,000 members in Taiwan, with a significant number being refugees from China. Combined, they amount to 1.5-2 per cent of the population. 

Should Catholics stand by while the Vatican-CCP deal is renewed without conditions, or while the only European country which recognises Taiwan stays silent on the Taiwan situation? The Pope just came back from a pilgrimage of penance to Canada. Catholics ought to ensure that a future pope does not have to make a similar pilgrimage to east Asia.

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