The Vatican came out swinging last week against the German Synodal Path. The Holy See issued a statement, warning that the movement – designed to give lay members a say in running the Church – lacks the authority to instruct bishops on doctrine or morality, and warned of the dangers of schism. The Synodal Path is a series of conferences of the German Catholic Church to discuss theological and organisational questions. It is divided into forums on separation of powers; succeeding relationships; priestly existence, and the role of women. A majority at a conference held in February, meanwhile, endorsed women’s ordination, same sex partnerships getting a public blessing, reforming teachings on sexual ethics, and allowing married priests. 

The Synodal Assembly has signalled its intent to challenge Church doctrine and discipline, and vowed to issue binding teaching on a range of matters. For his part, Pope Francis wrote a letter to German Catholics in 2019, objecting to their course of action. However, in 2021, a “Fundamental Text” asserted that “there is no one truth of the religious, moral, and political world, and no one form of thought that can lay claim to ultimate authority.” Over the last few years, meanwhile, the German Church has suffered a devastating decline, in line with much of western Europe, amid hundreds of thousands of members leaving. The German Catholic population has fallen by about one-fifth since the early 1980s. According to the German bishops’ conference, at least 359,000 Catholics left the church in 2021, a jump from 221,390 in 2020. Only 4.3 per cent of German Catholics said they go to Mass most Sundays. 

While progressives in the German Church may see a liberal turn as a way of bringing Catholics back, they could be drawing the the wrong conclusion. A feisty attitude towards Catholic orthodoxy might be the way to win over lapsed Catholics. The evidence in eastern Europe supports that this. It is the conservatism of the Church which has retained the faithful in countries like Poland. Yes, there is a different history in the former communist east, associating the Church and St. Pope John Paul II with the collapse of communism. However, it is not that simple. The former East Germany, for instance, never saw its religiosity rise after the end of communism, enveloped as it was by the western European German state after 1990, suggesting the growth of Christianity in eastern Europe is about more than communism.

It should be stated that German Catholics also pay a church tax, generally set at just under 10 per cent and making up nearly three-quarters of income for many dioceses. While in the US, the decline in priestly vocations is partly offset by a growing Catholic immigrant population, in Germany – as well as France and the Netherlands – a statistically higher proportion of immigrants are Muslims, meaning less of a pool of potential new recruits for the priesthood. If then German Catholic progressives believe that in challenging the conservatism of the established Church, they are likely to attract Catholics back to the faith and the priesthood, they could be sorely mistaken. More likely is that seemingly orchestrated attacks on Christianity and western culture would appear to have alienated so many western Europeans from the faith that decline is becoming near-irreversible.  

Yes, data suggests Mass-attending Catholics are more conservative in outlook and perhaps a more moderate position will bring back lapsed Catholics. But such an approach does risk alienating those attending Mass already, while likely failing to draw back former churchgoers, thanks to the overall cultural turn against Christianity in much of the west. Such an approach may even drive many conservative Catholics to other denominations, such as Evangelical Protestantism and Orthodox Christianity, the latter a growing trend in recent years. The evidence from countries like Hungary and Poland suggests that when Christianity is associated internally with national identity and culture, attachment to the faith entrenches. In that instance, the Church’s conservatism attracts, rather than repels.

The Synodal Pathway faces off against the demographics of Germany and western Europe. It risks drawing the wrong conclusion from the decline of Christianity in the country, while failing to win over lapsed Catholics and perhaps alienating the faithful. Human identity is complex, but it seems that when religion becomes associated with a person’s core identity it strengthens. The Church is already struggling to hold together a diverse coalition, with increasingly different interpretations of the faith. Still, there is only part of Europe where Christianity is strengthening, and it isn’t in Germany.

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