As Europe comes under increasing energy and inflation pressures after COVID and the war in Ukraine, Brussels is yet again piling pressure on conservative Catholic-majority states in central and eastern Europe in what the latter sees as an ongoing thinly-veiled attempt to impose liberal values on the conservative-nationalist region. Yesterday, the EU told Hungary and Poland to improve judicial and media independence, as well as anti-corruption measures, as part of conditions to unlock billions in aid, as part of a new rule of law report. The European Commission is currently withholding access to over €15 billion. On Wednesday, the Commission said “serious concerns persist related to the independence of the Polish judiciary”. 

But for Hungary and Poland, this is little more than a front, with Polish Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro stating “this is not about the rule of law”. Ziobri added: “It is about power, it is about overthrowing a government that has a democratic mandate”. Budapest responded similarly, with Justice Minister Judit Varga calling the report “the usual crossfire”. Despite inching towards a deal of late, both countries remain subject to the EU’s Article 7 proceedings which could lead to a suspension of voting rights, while Poland faces a daily fine of €1 million for not complying with an EU court order to suspend the country’s disciplinary mechanism for judges.

Secular and progressive western Europe has been at loggerheads with the EU’s newer members in the formerly communist east for years now, not least over divergent attitudes towards migration, LGBT rights and sovereignty. Soon after coming to power, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán oversaw a new constitution with references to God and Christianity; funded Catholic schools, and banned content deemed to promote LGBT issues to minors, none of which endeared him to Brussels.

Critics within both Hungary and Poland increasingly fear the conditions for cash are becoming too much to bear. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has already fended off Ziobro’s calls for Poland to turn down any cash if the Commission insists on conditions. Ziobro said the milestones on disbursing money were “millstones” around the country’s neck, and fulfilling them would lead Poland to lose sovereignty. The question is how much longer can this house divided against itself really stand. Hungary and Poland are also heavily catalysed by their Catholic faith and the association of St. John Paul II with the downfall of European communism.

In the midst of all this, fresh data from Eurostat revealed the EU’s population shrank for the second time in a year in 2021, partly due to the pandemic. The population of the EU fell from 447 million to 446.8 million. However, as part of a trend, populations in central and eastern Europe tended towards decline – such as Poland and Romania – while countries in western Europe tended to see an increase, such as France, the Netherlands and Sweden. Yet, like the US, increases in western Europe are being driven by immigration and a higher birth rate among immigrants and their descendants. Like Japan and South Korea, central and eastern Europe has refused to initiate a more open immigration policy.

For a long time, intra-European immigration was driving population growth in western Europe, but that has largely slowed down. Indeed, many central and eastern Europeans have returned from countries like the UK. Meanwhile central and eastern Europe has had a huge boost of late from Ukrainian immigration, which was not picked up in the latest data (although to what extent such movement will be permanent remains to be seen). What we do know is that Ukrainian immigrants are coming from another culturally conservative, religious and traditionalist society.

This may all suggest the European cultural Iron Curtain is going nowhere. Moreover, the trust between the two halves of the EU is now largely broken. Brussels seems not to believe central and eastern Europe can ever truly change, while central and eastern Europe seems to believe Brussels’ actions are all a cover for imposition of liberal values. Despite this current short-term need for cash, in reality most central and eastern European states are also likely to become net contributors to the EU by 2030 rather than beneficiaries, a point which led Hungarian Finance Minister – Mihály Varga – to last year warn Budapest may rethink its position.

The time may be approaching for central and eastern Europe to go their own way. If they did, a new bloc may be seen as a loadstar for conservatives across western Europe and North America – democratic but traditionalist, and a place many would prefer to raise a family and live. It is conceivable that countries in central and eastern Europe would welcome some movement of like-minded people into their countries, boosting population numbers as well as the economy. Moreover, these countries still have room to grow and are comparatively cheap by European standards.

The cultural division across Europe is now, of course, impossible to ignore. On almost every major issue, values diverge. There are very much two Europes now – one conservative, re-Christianising and nationalistic, the other progressive, de-Christianising and cosmopolitan in outlook. Neither side is happy with the status quo. For central and eastern Europeans meanwhile, their faith is also bound up with freedom, democracy and Western civilisation. Having lived under communism, they are determined to never submit to what they see as an alien ideology again. Crunch time is surely fast approaching.

The post Under attack from Brussels – could Hungary and Poland become a haven for conservative Europeans and Americans? appeared first on Catholic Herald.