While the decline of Christianity across the Western world, and especially in Europe, is well-documented, this does not give an entirely accurate picture of what is really going on. While Catholic church attendance is in sharp decline across western Europe, especially France, Germany and Spain, it is rising in the east. Meanwhile, the collapse of Catholicism in parts of the United States masks a rise in other areas of the country. For starters, Catholicism is a driving force in the conservative nationalist countries of central and eastern Europe, such as Hungary and Poland, where Catholicism is heavily associated with post-communist freedom and democracy, rather than associated with traditionalism and alleged “patriarchy”, as in western Europe.

In Hungary, for instance, thousands of churches have been rebuilt in the last ten years. The same goes for Poland. It would be inconceivable today for a basilica to have been built over the last twenty or so years in western Europe, especially not one of the largest on earth as was completed in 2004 in Poland. Indeed, the US Conference on Catholic Bishops (USCCB) supports work like this. Unfortunately, things are looking rather worse in parts of the United States, mirroring trends in western Europe, Canada and Australasia. But even in the States, declines are most visible in the Northeast and Midwest where Catholicism was initially driven by the influx of Irish, Italian and Polish immigrants over a century ago.

Overall, while there were 1,437 fewer parishes in the United States in 2019 than in 1971, decline in parts of the country masks a different trend in others, with expansion in the South and West, areas of the country where the Latino population is highest. As reported by Robert David Sullivan for America Magazine, while the state of Maine saw the number of Catholic churches fall from 140 to 55 between 1971 and 2018, and the number of Catholic parishes in Pennsylvania fell 36 per cent over the same period, this is somewhat offset by growth in parishes in Texas (293), Florida (165), and Arizona and New Mexico combined (121). The growth in the South and West tends to be for larger churches too. In Georgia, for instance, the number of parishes rose 85 per cent from 1971 to 2018, with Tennessee close behind at 82 per cent.

However, while immigrants and their descendants are again supporting growth of the Catholic Church in the US (a similar trend is happening in the UK, where immigrants have also boosted church attendance), what happens if minority populations start to follow the secular drift of the rest of the country? There is some evidence of this already happening in the United States, where Latinos are no longer majority Catholic. In 2018-19, according to data from Pew Research Center, while 47 per cent of Latinos identified as Catholic, this is down from 57 per cent a decade before. 

The study found the share of Latinos who say they are religiously unaffiliated is now 23 per cent, up from 15 per cent in 2009. Overall, Pew found that only 65 per cent of Americans described themselves as Christians in 2018-19, down from 77 per cent in 2009. While 43 per cent of American adults identify with Protestantism, this was down from 51 per cent in 2009. The decline among Catholics was less extreme: 23 to 20 per cent, but the trends are clear. Indeed, Latinos are mirroring trends in the wider population (the number of White and Black Americans who identify as Christian was -12 and -11 per respectively, over the same time period).

Contrast this with Europe, where central and eastern Europeans remain more likely to see religion as key to national identity than western Europeans. Central and eastern Europeans are also less supportive of same-sex marriage, and more opposed to abortion. Generally, those in the EU’s east are more likely to believe in God, and see religion as important to life. What the evidence seems to suggest is that in both Europe and the US there is division in terms of Christianity and Catholicism, although central and eastern Europe is strengthened by the fact Christianity is aligned closely with national and cultural identity. The faith is going nowhere.

Increasingly it looks as though Catholicism is being interpreted differently in different parts of the world. Even among American Catholics interpretations of the faith appear to vary wildly (note Nancy Pelosi). How the Vatican manages these divisions is anyone’s guess. If Latinos begin to drift in a more secular direction however, many of the gains made by the Church in the US could be lost, notwithstanding fresh converts or returning parishioners among other groups. In Europe, the die appears to be cast, where religiosity is now heavily linked with nationalism and conservative values, and a split divides the Continent in two. This will be a balancing act for a Church criticised for being too conservative by some and too liberalising by others.

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