As the plenary assembly of the Synodal Path gets underway this week, with a debate on sexual morality, what next for the progressive movement? Despite misgivings in some quarters – not least from the Vatican  – Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, the Maltese prelate Mario Grech, said he views open letters on the Synodal Path as a “public denunciation” in an interview with Herder Thema. The cardinal said open criticism “only further polarises”. Grech continues to have confidence in the Synodal Path and trusts the German bishops know what they are doing.

This week, the texts being considered for a first or second reading include those – such as a law allowing the dismissal of people in a same-sex relationship – which can be adopted without the Vatican’s approval, and others – such as the ordination of women – which require consent. Participants will also vote on whether to create a permanent council to oversee the German Church. 

Despite seeing a constituency for a progressive Catholicism, there has been significant domestic pushback. Cardinal Walter Kasper – former president of the Pontifical Council for Promoting Christian Unity – has claimed the Synodal Path is ignoring the Pope, and if it continues to ignore his concerns, it could “break the German Synodal Path’s neck”. According to Kasper, while reform is necessary this does not mean reducing the Church “to a mass of modelling clay which one can knead and shape to fit any situation”.

To recap, the Synodal Path is a series of conferences of the German Church to discuss theological and organisational questions, and is divided into forums on separation of powers; succeeding relationships; priestly existence, and the role of women. A majority at a conference in February endorsed women’s ordination, same-sex partnerships getting a public blessing, reforming teachings on sexual ethics, and allowing married priests. The Synodal Assembly has signalled its intent to challenge Church doctrine and discipline, and vowed to issue binding teaching on a range of matters. 

Pope Francis wrote a letter to German Catholics in 2019 objecting to the course of action. However, in 2021, a “Fundamental Text” asserted that “there is no one truth of the religious, moral, and political world, and no one form of thought that can lay claim to ultimate authority.” In the meantime, the German Church has suffered significant decline, with hundreds of thousands of members resigning. According to the German Bishops’ Conference, at least 359,000 Catholics left the Church in 2021, a jump from 221,390 in 2020. 

The Synodal Path seems to believe a focus on social justice will bring Catholics back into the pews. Yet, evidence from mainline Protestantism – as well as the Catholic Church’s loss to Evangelicalism in Latin America – suggest otherwise. How else to explain why liberal Protestantism has also nosedived in Germany and elsewhere? Fifteen years ago, 61 per cent of Germans belonged to either a Catholic or Protestant church. Today only about 26 per cent of Germans are registered Catholic, with 23.7 per cent registered Protestant.

The evidence of Protestantism’s decline, and the rise of Latin American Evangelicalism – as well as the strength of the Church in societies such as Nigeria, the Philippines and Poland – suggests going liberal is no solution to declining numbers. This all comes as the Synod of Synodality enters its ‘continental phase’, which will try to reconcile divisions between a progressive western Europe, and a conservative approach in central and eastern Europe, with European Catholics appearing to mirror trends in their wider societies. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the president of the Polish Episcopal Conference has rebuked the Synodal Path. Meanwhile, according to Poland’s own synodal report, Catholics there do not want doctrinal changes. Overall, the Synodal Path seems to believe social justice is the key to turning around Catholicism’s fortunes. Of course, the Church must tolerate dissent and there are reforms which ought to be discussed. But the example of Protestantism’s decline – as well as the fortunes of the Catholic Church where it has held firm – suggests the Path may be wrong in its approach.

As the plenary assembly begins, the threat of schism hangs in the way. How the Vatican can reconcile this vision with the New Right and Catholic “trads” and an increasingly integralist central and eastern Europe is a matter of debate. Catholicism may be a broad ‘church’ but divisions among European Catholics as well as American Catholics – on top of movements like the Synodal Path – may be too much to withstand. All the while, tensions persist. 

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