As rumours abound about the possible resignation of Pope Francis, the Pope’s appointment of 16 new voting cardinals will further stack the odds in favour of a future pontiff made in his image. Little wonder speculation is rife about the “Asian Francis” – Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle – who bookmakers now have at 6/1. But this may be premature: at 4/1 is the Ghanian, Cardinal Peter Turkson, who – like fellow African, Cardinal Robert Sarah – may have a distinct advantage over the Filipino cleric.

Speculation of an African pope has been widespread for years, with Cardinal Turkson previously talked about as a Papabile alongside Nigeria’s Cardinal Francis Arinze, whose age now disqualifies him from succeeding Pope Francis. But the comparatively youthful 73-year-old Cardinal Turkson is today joined by the 77-year-old Guinean, Cardinal Sarah. Just as Benedict XVI set the precedent for Pope Francis to one day potentially resign, so the election of a Latin American has opened the door for another pope from outside Europe.

Today’s College of Cardinals is already a less European affair. Pope Francis recently announced the creation of six cardinals from Asia and two from Africa. Overall, the Pope’s appointments have increased representation from the Asia-Pacific from 9 per cent in 2013 to 17 per cent in 2022, while increasing representation from sub-Saharan African from 9 per cent to 12 per cent. The Church itself is now a less European affair as well, with roughly 40 per cent of Catholics in the Caribbean and Latin America, 16 per cent in Sub-Saharan Africa, and 12 per cent in the Asia-Pacific. 

While the Church is suffering setbacks in Latin America, it is booming in Africa and Asia, with a traditionalist message key to its success. This could increase pressure to select a leader of the Church who better represents its changing demographics and who comes from a region where the Church is thriving. While the Pope’s ally, Cardinal Tagle, could win over those who wish to see a more representative leader, as a continuity candidate he may find it difficult to win over the traditionalists. Tagle is very much seen as representing the Church’s progressive wing, having criticised previously “harsh words” against LGBT Catholics. 

This is where the African cardinals may have an advantage. Cardinal Turkson – a tech-savvy polyglot who once played in a funk band – could well reach a growing global Catholic audience. But he is also a staunch conservative who has defended anti-gay legislation. As reported in 2013 by the Associated Press, Archbishop of Cape Coast, Mattias Kobena Nketsiah said that, as a pope, Turkson would be conservative: “You can’t expect him to be the liberal pope people are anticipating”. Yet, Cardinal Turkson’s strong stand on poverty and “idolatry of the market” could also swing liberals behind him. Meanwhile, he played a key role as a peacemaker following Ghana’s 2008 elections.

Cardinal Sarah is also a noted traditionalist, very much seen as part of the loyal opposition to the current pontiff. With a pre-Vatican II outlook, Cardinal Sarah was reluctant, for instance, to publish the Pope’s decree which allowed washing the feet of females on Holy Thursday. Both African clerics would likely also win over many conservatives with their views on immigration, with Cardinal Turkson having screened a video about the inroads Islam is apparently making in Europe, something for which he later apologised. 

Meanwhile, Cardinal Sarah has said every nation has a right to distinguish between refugees and economic migrants. In comments reported by Polish Catholic magazine, Gość Niedzielny, Cardinal Sarah said while every migrant must be respected, the situation becomes more complex if they are of another culture or religion, and imperil the common good of the nation. He added: “The ideology of liberal individualism promotes a mixing that is designed to erode the natural borders of homelands and cultures, and leads to a post-national and one-dimensional world where the only things that matter are consumption and production.” 

Contrast this with Cardinal Tagle who – speaking recently in the UK – asked whether Christians in the diaspora “still feel like journeyers, or temporary settlers, or guests?” He added: “We can be so established in our ways and culture that we start behaving like owners of lands, peoples, and ideas. The letter reminds us of the displaced peoples of today – exiles, travellers like the forced migrants, the refugees, the victims of human slavery.” 

The African cardinals have more than traditionalism and a continent in common, however. Both recently resigned as prefects of a dicastery of the Roman Curia: Cardinal Turkson from the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development (perhaps due to internal tensions) and Cardinal Sarah from the Dicastery for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments. Unlike Cardinal Sarah, Cardinal Turkson was not at the retirement age of 75, although Cardinal Sarah was younger than other curial heads. This sparked speculation about why both men resigned when they did.

Like Cardinal Tagle, Cardinals Sarah and Turkson could win over liberals looking to promote a more global face of the Church, with a leader able to speak to a more international audience. But unlike Tagle, Sarah and Turkson are also likely to win over conservatives looking for change rather than continuity. That said, all three papabili can benefit from the precedent set by Pope Francis in coming from Latin America, just as he benefits from the precedent Benedict set in resigning.

Today, an African Pope is more likely than ever given the shifting demographics of the Church, as well as the make-up of the College of Cardinals. The make-up of the College – thanks to appointments made by Francis – may put the odds back in favour of a continuity candidate like Tagle, although it could also help a candidate able to appeal to traditionalists and liberals alike, such as Hungarian Cardinal, Péter Erdő, or indeed Sarah and Turkson, both now surely in pole position to succeed Pope Francis. Tagle is a frontrunner but Sarah and Turkson may now have the edge.

The post An African Pope – Cardinals Sarah and Turkson could beat Tagle appeared first on Catholic Herald.