As rumours continue to mount that Pope Francis could be on the verge of resigning, it is worth considering not just who the next Pontiff could be but what he would represent. The Pope will host a consistory to create 21 new cardinals later this year. The College of Cardinals currently consists of 208 Cardinals, of whom 117 are electors. As of August 27, that number will grow to 229 Cardinals, of whom 131 will be electors for a new Pope. It is widely believed the Pope is looking to ensure any successor reflects his position on key issues.

Interestingly, eight of the new Cardinals will be from Europe, six from Asia, two from Africa, one from North America, with four from Central and Latin America, the Pope’s own region of origin. The new cardinals are:

1. Archbishop Arthur Roche – Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments (UK)

2. Archbishop Lazzaro You Heung-sik – Prefect of the Congregation for the Clergy (South Korea)

3. Archbishop Fernando Vérgez Alzaga, L.C. – President of the Pontifical Commission for Vatican City State and President of the Governorate for Vatican City State (Spain)

4. Archbishop Jean-Marc Aveline – Metropolitan Archbishop of Marseille (France)

5. Bishop Peter Okpaleke – Bishop of Ekwulobia (Nigeria)

6. Archbishop Leonardo Ulrich Steiner, O.F.M. – Metropolitan Archbishop of Manaus (Brazil)

7. Archbishop Filipe Neri António Sebastião di Rosário Ferrão – Archbishop of Goa and Daman (India)

8. Bishop Robert Walter McElroy – Bishop of San Diego (USA)

9. Archbishop Virgilio Do Carmo Da Silva, S.D.B. – Archbishop of Dili (East Timor)

10. Bishop Oscar Cantoni – Bishop of Como (Italy)

11. Archbishop Anthony Poola – Archbishop of Hyderabad (India).

12. Archbishop Paulo Cezar Costa – Metropolitan Archbishop of Brasília (Brazil)

13. Bishop Richard Kuuia Baawobr, M. Africa – Bishop of Wa (Ghana)

14. Archbishop William Goh Seng Chye – Archbishop of Singapore (Singapore)

15. Archbishop Adalberto Martínez Flores – Metropolitan Archbishop of Asunción (Paraguay)

16. Archbishop Giorgio Marengo, I.M.C. – Apostolic Prefect of Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia)

17. Archbishop Jorge Enrique Jiménez Carvajal – Archbishop Emeritus of Cartagena (Colombia)

18. Bishop Lucas Van Looy, S.D.B. – Bishop Emeritus of Gent (Belgium)

19. Archbishop Arrigo Miglio – Archbishop Emeritus of Cagliari (Italy)

20. Fr. Gianfranco Ghirlanda, S.J. – Rector Emeritus of the Pontifical Gregorian University (Italy)

21. Msgr. Fortunato Frezza – Canon of Saint Peter’s Basilica (Italy)

Given the origins of the new cardinals – as well as the changing demographics of the Catholic Church – speculation is mounting that the next Pope may not be of European origin at all (Pope Francis is Italian-Argentine). As Newsweek recently pointed out, “bookmakers predict a Black or Asian cardinal could succeed” the Holy Father. According to Newsweek: “Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (pictured above) from the Philippines has been given 5/1 odds of being elected the next pope by British bookmakers OLBG. Also highly favored to replace Francis is Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, who has been given odds of 6/1.” 

Certainly, much of the Church’s growth is in the Global South, although it is also surging in central and eastern Europe, as well as South Korea. The Philippines currently has the third highest number of Catholics in the world (just over 85m), after Brazil (123-140m) and Mexico (just under 98m). Mexicans and other Latin Americans are also driving the Church’s growth in the United States – where they make up nearly 20 per cent of the population – while Africans are supporting the Church’s numbers in France and the UK.

As Newsweek reported, Cardinal Tagle “is viewed as a top papal contender thanks to a series of promotions that make Francis’ esteem for him clear.” Called the “Asian Francis”, he was appointed by Pope Francis to lead the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, which oversees the Church in Asia, Africa and other mission territories, in 2019. Crucially, Cardinal Tagle is very much seen as representing the Church’s progressive wing, having criticised previously “harsh words” against LGBT Catholics.

Now with the Pope having postponed a trip to Africa, rumours are mounting about his resignation, something an upcoming visit to L’Aquila, Italy in August has added to. Should Pope Francis resign this will be the first time in modern times that three living Popes have been around simultaneously. What is more interesting perhaps is to consider whether a new Pope would reflect the changing face of the Church. Despite its history as a largely European institution, spread to the world by Europeans, and still very much alive and kicking in central and eastern Europe, there is no denying the Church is becoming not just less European geographically but culturally too. 

While the Church in Asia (and Christians more generally) usually finds itself as a community in the minority (the Philippines being an exception), it is also flourishing. In the West, by contrast, Christianity and Catholicism is often a majority faith in name only (countries like Poland notwithstanding). What then for the future? Perhaps a major change will not come anytime soon, but – unless current trends change dramatically – it seems likely that a new Pope will one day be chosen to reflect the changing face of the worldwide Church. How would this be squared with the stance of countries like Hungary and Poland, which associate Catholicism with ‘European civilization’. It could be a critical balancing act, and one Catholics can only hope the Church is up to.

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